The 21st century might be the most important century in human history. In the next decades, we might usher in a period of extremely rapid technological and economic growth, upholding a long-run historical trend of super-exponential growth and leading to truly mind-bending technological and economic change in the span of a few decades. This period of transformation holds great promise for humanity, but, at the same time, we might not survive it. Artificial intelligence is the most likely technology to enable this period of extreme growth while posing most of the risk. We’ll explore one candidate approach to artificial general intelligence and its timelines.<br /><br />This video is based on Holden Karnofsky’s “most important century” blog post series: <a href="https://www.cold-takes.com/most-important-century/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">https://www.cold-takes.com/most-important-century/</a><br /><br />Below, you can find additional sources and further readings.<br /><br />▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀PATREON, MEMBERSHIP, KO-FI▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀<br /><br />🟠 Patreon: <a href="https://www.patreon.com/rationalanimations" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">https://www.patreon.com/rationalanimations</a><br /><br />🔵 Become a member of the channel: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgqt1RE0k0MIr0LoyJRy2lg/join" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgqt1RE0k0MIr0LoyJRy2lg/join</a><br /><br />🟤 Ko-fi: <a href="https://ko-fi.com/rationalanimations" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">https://ko-fi.com/rationalanimations</a><br /><br />▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀SOCIAL & DISCORD▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀<br /><br />Twitter: <a href="https://twitter.com/RationalAnimat1" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">https://twitter.com/RationalAnimat1</a><br /><br />Discord: <a href="https://discord.gg/hxWBm6sBNU" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">https://discord.gg/hxWBm6sBNU</a><br /><br />▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀SOURCES & READINGS▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀:<br /><br />Most important:<br /><br />Holden Karnofsky’s “most important century” blog post series: <a href="https://www.cold-takes.com/most-important-century/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">https://www.cold-takes.com/most-important-century/</a><br /><br />Ajeya Cotra’s report on AI timelines: <a href="https://drive.google.com/drive/u/1/folders/15ArhEPZSTYU8f012bs6ehPS6-xmhtBPP" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">https://drive.google.com/drive/u/1/folders/15ArhEPZSTYU8f012bs6ehPS6-xmhtBPP</a><br /><br />More sources: <br /><br />Our World in Data, page on population growth: <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/world-population-growth" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">https://ourworldindata.org/world-population-growth</a><br /><br />Our World in Data, page on democracy: <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/democracy" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">https://ourworldindata.org/democracy</a><br /><br />Our World in Data, population of England: <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/population-of-england-millennium" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/population-of-england-millennium</a> <br /><br />Our World in Data, World GDP over the last two millennia: <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/world-gdp-over-the-last-two-millennia?time=1967..2015" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/world-gdp-over-the-last-two-millennia?time=1967..2015</a><br /><br />Estimates of World GDP, One Million B.C – Present, by J. Bradford De Long: <a href="https://delong.typepad.com/print/20061012_LRWGDP.pdf" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">https://delong.typepad.com/print/20061012_LRWGDP.pdf</a><br /><br />An Essay on the Principle of Population, by Thomas Malthus: <a href="https://www.medicina.univr.it/documenti/OccorrenzaIns/matdid/matdid170841.pdf" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">https://www.medicina.univr.it/documenti/OccorrenzaIns/matdid/matdid170841.pdf</a><br /><br />Population Growth and Technological Change: One Million B.C. to 1990* Micharl Kremer: <a href="https://robobees.seas.harvard.edu/files/pegroup/files/kremer1993_2.11.pdf" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">https://robobees.seas.harvard.edu/files/pegroup/files/kremer1993_2.11.pdf</a><br /><br />Modeling the Human Trajectory, by David Roodman: <a href="https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/modeling-the-human-trajectory/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/modeling-the-human-trajectory/</a><br /><br />GDP Growth (annual %), from The World Bank: <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG</a><br /><br />2016 Expert survey on progress in AI: <a href="https://aiimpacts.org/2016-expert-survey-on-progress-in-ai/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">https://aiimpacts.org/2016-expert-survey-on-progress-in-ai/</a><br /><br />Robert Miles’ (our narrator) YouTube channel on AGI alignment: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/c/RobertMilesAI" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">https://www.youtube.com/c/RobertMilesAI</a><br /><br />Trends in the cost of computing, by AI Impacts: <a href="https://aiimpacts.org/trends-in-the-cost-of-computing/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">https://aiimpacts.org/trends-in-the-cost-of-computing/</a><br /><br />Animation at minute 31:50 inspired by the cover of the book "Facing the Intelligence Explosion", by Luke Muehlhasuer: <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Facing-Intelligence-Explosion-Luke-Muehlhauser-ebook/dp/B00C7YOR5Q/ref=sr_1_3?crid=1JDT2NEC4KCVC&keywords=Luke+Muehlhauser&qid=1658663037&s=books&sprefix=luke+muehlhauser%2Cstripbooks-intl-ship%2C172&sr=1-3" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">https://www.amazon.com/Facing-Intelligence-Explosion-Luke-Muehlhauser-ebook/dp/B00C7YOR5Q/ref=sr_1_3?crid=1JDT2NEC4KCVC&keywords=Luke+Muehlhauser&qid=1658663037&s=books&sprefix=luke+muehlhauser%2Cstripbooks-intl-ship%2C172&sr=1-3</a><br /><br />▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀OTHER STUFF▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀<br /><br />Share this video with a friend or on Social Media: <a href="https://youtu.be/ohHpMeNR3wg" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">https://youtu.be/ohHpMeNR3wg</a><br /><br />Playlist with all the animated videos: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GgyX-MnRAuY&list=PL1Nr7ps7wyYo-0AOYd6lfKp-6Czh4p5On" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GgyX-MnRAuY&list=PL1Nr7ps7wyYo-0AOYd6lfKp-6Czh4p5On</a><br /><br />Bitcoin address: 1FX4iepZfh1yuMNYtvYf2CWL7gha8cakuf<br />Ethereum address: 0xDa8463494Dd233c3aBe59bc42Abc4D50823A5f3<br /><br />▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀PATRONS & MEMBERS▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀<br /><br />Thanks to our patrons and channel members from the Simple Adder tier and above:<br /><br />Bleys Goodson<br /><br />Dawson<br /><br />marverati<br /><br />Matt Parlmer<br /><br />Michael Zimmermann<br /><br />no special person<br /><br />Vincent Söderberg<br /><br />Filip Passeri<br /><br />Scott Alexander<br /><br />Connor<br /><br />Dang Griffith<br /><br />Mark Gongloff<br /><br />Neel Nanda<br /><br />rictic<br /><br />Robin Hanson<br /><br />Ryouta Takehiko<br /><br />Ana Tomasovic<br /><br />Bryan Egan<br /><br />Calvin McCarter<br /><br />Craig Ludington<br /><br />Craig Talbert<br /><br />Dan Wahl<br /><br />Ducky<br /><br />Florian<br /><br />Gabriel Ledung<br /><br />Grisha Levit<br /><br />Jacob Van Buren<br /><br />Jeroen De Dauw<br /><br />joe39504589<br /><br />John S<br /><br />Klemen Slavic<br /><br />Lars Osborne<br /><br />Logic<br /><br />Luke Freeman<br /><br />Nathan<br /><br />Nathan Fish<br /><br />Nicholas Kees Dupuis<br /><br />Nick Sharp<br /><br />noggieB<br /><br />Oisin Hendrix<br /><br />Raphaël Lévy<br /><br />Roborodger<br /><br />Sephiths<br /><br />Superslowmojoe<br /><br />Tim Duffy<br /><br />Trevyn Case<br /><br />Udo<br /><br />The CEO<br /><br />Lexi X<br /><br />רם רינגל<br /><br />▀▀▀▀▀▀▀CREDITS▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀<br />Writer: Matthew Barnett<br />Producer: :3<br />Animator: :3<br />Narrator: Robert Miles<br />Sound design: Tony Dipiazza<br /><br />▀▀▀▀▀▀▀CHAPTERS▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀<br /><br />Chapters:<br /><br />0:00 - A Very Unusual Time Period<br />4:29 - The 21st Century Could Be Much Weirder Than We Imagine<br />10:08 - The Duplicator<br />14:55 - The Most Important Invention Ever?<br />15:53 - When Will Advanced AI Arrive?<br />20:29 - Ajeya Cotra's Report on AI Timelines<br />27:54 - What Does This All Ultimately Mean?<br />...<br /><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3K25VPdbAjU" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3K25VPdbAjU</a>