Realtime Collapse: Projections point to likely Crash of sea ice in Antarctica by 10, 12 or 19 Jan 2024.<br /><br />Recent melt compared to 2010s decadal avg over past 15 days, eg 50% higher melt, then projected on rest of Melt Season.<br /><br />On staying clear of assumptions & political agendas<br /><br />We need to be clear about accuracy & uncertainty. Myself, I’ve thrown most, if not all, assumptions out the window on this. Most everyone you heard about has an agenda, which is why you even heard about them… Or they are being used by people with one.<br />In this plot assumptions are cut to the bone: I still assume Earth revolves around the Sun, so that Melt Season works much the same way as in the past decade.<br />So I use the 10-year average of 2010-19 as the basis to project upon. For instance, we now have within the past 2-3 weeks a 10-day period that melted 50% faster than that same 10-day period in the 2010s: What would happen if that currently observed melt intensity lingered at 150% of the 2010s level, for the duration of the Melt Season?<br />At the same time, however, I add to the Uncertainty Interval, the coloured area in the plot, all of the periods it didn’t melt that fast, which is why you get 2-3 million km² sea ice as the very least dramatic estimate.<br />Summary: So all I’m doing is to say, OK it’s melting this fast now, what happens if that would last? And I also have a 25-day period graphed, which is much less likely to be as extreme as the 10-day.<br />...<br /><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YOVsFeHDdeY" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YOVsFeHDdeY</a>